Page 32 - University of Pretoria Research Review 2017

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The impact of fiscal policies
Margaret Chitiga, School of Public Management and Administration
The focus of Professor Margaret Chitiga’s research in the School of Public Management and Administration is to understand, in considerable detail, the impact on the economy and welfare of fiscal policies. Her recent research shows that one of the most effective ways
to study the impact of policies is through the use of extensive and massive computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that capture all relevant components of an economy, and the modelling of their interactions.
Her research seeks to provide scientific insights into
the implications of spending on infrastructure, social welfare and environmental policies, and into the implications of raising revenue through tax instruments. The CGE methodologies make it possible to test the effects of policies that are currently implemented,
and the effects of other possible policy scenarios,
were these to be implemented. Dynamic modelling techniques can precisely demonstrate the impact
of policies, for example, on poverty and inequality
or on special groups such as women and children. Professor Chitiga was part of a team of researchers who advocated a pro-poor VAT increase with recycling, that might well have influenced policy in light of the recent VAT increase in South Africa.
Given that most countries have long-term development plans, and policies typically have long-term effects, it
is important to project the effects of policies into the future. This makes it possible to gauge the extent to which a county would be able to meet its plans, as well as the possible intended and unintended consequences of policies.
Professor Chitiga has also combined techniques to sharpen the focus on poverty and inequality analysis,
and to show asymmetries that can result over time
with respect to the impact of policies. With a number
of national and international researcher collaborators, she has pioneered the use and analysis of sophisticated tools for research in Africa. International collaborators include researchers from Université Laval, Quebec (Canada); the University of la Havre, Normandie (France); and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC (United States).
Professor Chitiga was invited to participate in the Green Jobs Assessment Institutions Network (GAIN) of the International Labour Organization, and was part of a select group who wrote a training guidebook, How to measure and model social and employment outcomes of climate and sustainable development policies. Launched at the 3rd GAIN conference held in Geneva
in December 2017, the book has created substantial interest, including by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The idea of the book
is to share state-of-the-art methodologies, including partial and general equilibrium modelling, to enable an understanding of the impact of green technologies on economic growth.
Understanding the intended and unintended consequences of public policies is of great interest to economists, accentuated in post-apartheid South Africa, where addressing economic growth and inequality are major systemic challenges.
Professor Margaret Chitiga is the Director and Head of the School of Public Management and Administration at UP.